Is the lack of drivers a myth, or is there really a problem?
Truckers are one of the foundations of global logistics, but some worry that foundation has become shakier in recent years. Two vocal parties have been debating the existence of a trucker shortage, with both sides claiming to have evidence that backs up their claims.
No logistics chain can function at its peak with this kind of doubt, especially in the ongoing chaos of a pandemic. In this blog, you will learn:
How COVID-19 has impacted the trucking industry, independent of other factors
The pre-existing argument for a trucker shortage
Why some insiders feel there was never a shortage
How RLG can help you find the best logistics partners in the toughest times
How COVID-19 has impacted the trucking industry, independent of other factors
The answer to “Is there a trucker shortage?” is, at least for now, a resounding “Yes.” This does not win the argument for those claiming an industry-specific shortage, however. Massive unemployment is currently a sad fact of almost every industry in the wake of the coronavirus.
There is no arguing that COVID-19 hit trucking with force. April 2020 was when the layoffs began in huge numbers. At that point, 20.5 million lost their jobs to the pandemic across various sectors. 88,300 of those losses were centered in trucking, and 60% of that number were actual drivers. This made April the worst employment situation for truckers since records began.
This is where the industry is now. How were things looking before the coronavirus hit?
The pre-existing argument for a trucker shortage
In 2018, the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) revealed driver shortage as the number one concern for motor carriers — a group increasingly responsible for moving the majority of national freight — and driver retention ranked at number 2. 2019 saw truckers at ground level citing an employment bloodbath as freight rates began to drop with both majors and independents feeling the sting.
Less work naturally means fewer jobs available, but insiders maintain there was more at play. The American Trucking Association (ATA) was concerned about a looming shortage in 2018 that would require them to hire 900,000 drivers to meet projected demand. The ATA claimed wages were ample, but ground-level sources disputed that.
Sub-par working conditions, unfair treatment and low pay have alienated workers from the sector and some claim that has caused a 60,000-driver gap. High turnover, high risk, unpaid/restricted work hours and unfair fines were among the top factors painting trucking in an unfavorable light.
Why some insiders feel there was never a shortage
Where and how bad any shortage was may depend on the point of view. The ATRI data linked above shows that, while commercial drivers acknowledged a driver shortage, it ranked second-to-last on their list of concerns. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) offered further pre-pandemic figures that belied the notion of a trucker shortage.
Their March 2019 report took marked exception to the idea of a driver shortage, calling out the trade press for perpetuating an image of the trucking sector as persistently short-handed and in danger of underperforming. To summarize the report, BLS maintained that the market for truck drivers was performing as well as any other blue-collar occupation and that employment numbers were robust. In terms of aggregate data, trucking was responding well when wages matched demand and truckers were showing a higher-than-typical rate of occupational attachment.
When we look at the very latest BLS data, it projects the number of truckers will increase by 5% in the next decade, which is the average rate of growth. This would take the number of American truckers to 2,058,500 by 2028, a reasonable assumption when the inevitable recovery of global supply chains is factored in.
In a May 2020 interview with Avery Vise, Vice President of FTR Transportation Intelligence, TruckingInfo.com highlighted that trucker employment numbers were actually pushing the all-time high as late as April 2020 (being only 0.5% away from hitting that figure) until the COVID-19 shutdowns took effect.
Vise also underlined that the number of parcel and delivery truck drivers has increased, and that current unemployment figures do not take private fleets or leased and independently owned/operated trucking groups into account. These may have drivers who are merely idle, not unemployed.
How RLG can help you find the best logistics partners in the toughest times
There are compelling points on both sides of the trucker shortage argument, but it’s ultimately a moot discussion. The effects of COVID-19 have eclipsed debate and ensured a lack of drivers for the foreseeable future. Though the sector will no doubt bounce back, it is harder than ever for businesses to locate reliable logistics partners.
RLG can assist in that search by providing management expertise in your next Request For Proposal. Through in-depth data analysis of your company needs, we can help you to study and select the best carrier partnerships from those available, and then monitor their performance on a global scale.
Get in touch for more information on finding the logistics support you need.
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